By the end of this month, the Supreme Court is expected to make a decision on the Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan. The decision could go either way, though news coverage points to the court striking down the plan. Before the news breaks, it’s helpful for voters to understand the options that lie before the court.

First, a quick refresher on how the plan arrived at this point in the process.

In August 2022, the Biden administration proposed a plan to forgive portions of student loans, arguing that the COVID pandemic has made it necessary. Soon after that announcement, several states sued the administration.

In October, following a review from the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, the plan was halted.

In February, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case. Since major decisions traditionally come in May and June, the ruling is expected soon. The Biden administration is citing the national emergency clause under the Higher Education Relief Opportunities for Students Act of 2003 (HEROES Act) as its authority to relieve $10,000 in student loan debt, and $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.

If the Supreme Court decides against the administration, what is the court’s likely argument?

The most likely legal argument that would persuade the court to strike down Biden’s loan forgiveness plan is that the Constitution gives the power to spend money to the legislative branch – Congress – not to the president. That’s according to Bill Duncan, Sutherland Institute’s religious freedom policy fellow. While Duncan normally focuses on religious freedom cases working their way through the court system, his expertise on Supreme Court dynamics is helpful when making sense of this latest case.

Essentially, the court could decide that the administration is overstepping the separation of powers between the two branches by stretching the HEROES Act beyond its original intent, which was war-related national emergencies.

“Presidents always attempt to puff their authority,” Duncan said.  “But they’re making an argument that doesn’t have much of a basis.” The administration trying to spend money that Congress didn’t appropriate for this purpose would “obviously be a violation of the separation of powers,” Duncan said.

If the Supreme Court sides with the Biden administration, what is the court’s likely argument?

The court could agree that the HEROES Act grants the executive branch the authority to offer loan forgiveness without congressional approval during emergencies that are not military in nature – such as the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Often, however, the court will issue narrow rulings that aren’t sweeping rejections or approvals of government action.

“An important aspiration of the court is to avoid interpreting a constitutional provision where that is not necessary,” said Duncan.

In this instance, “the court could theoretically decide that whatever the constitutional status of the specific executive action, the specific plaintiffs challenging the law do not have the legal authority to challenge it,” Duncan explained.

This would leave the specific program in place (at least for now) but would not settle the questions about executive power raised by this case.

Regardless of the decision from the court, it is important to know how the court is going to come to its conclusion. Unlike the legislative and executive branches, which weigh economic and societal impacts in their respective policy decisions, the duty of the judicial branch is to look only at constitutionality: whether the plan has a solid legal foundation.

As Utah voters see the news break either way, they should keep the court’s proper role in mind, and seek to view the decision through the lens of the Constitution, not public opinion.

For a more in-depth perspective on this article, read our Insights piece here.