• According to one analysis, the trend over the past 12 years seems to show that private school enrollment is growing.
• The future of private school enrollment could be significantly impacted by the expansion of education choice programs.

During last week’s press conference regarding the reelection of U.S House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson as the U.S. House of Representatives presiding officer, Johnson said that among the “time-tested truths” that support human flourishing is this one: “Parents – not administrators – must be in charge of their children’s education.”

His comments reflect the growing sentiment among America’s parents who want to feel that they are in the driver’s seat of education and that they have accessible choices.

It’s also in line with what Americans anticipate in education during a second President Trump term – the further advancement of private school choice policies.

There is public support for choice policies too, according to new December 2024 data, which shows that most Americans support education savings accounts and tax credit scholarships (as well as public school choice through decoupling residence and school assignments).

Private school choice has expanded from admission to private schools to include private a la carte education. Either way, the future of private choice legislation may change private school enrollment overall. Here’s where this issue stands today.

Private school enrollment

Finding data on enrollment in private schools is more challenging to find and estimate than in public schools (as is the case with tracking home schooling).

For instance, data updated in 2024 from National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) says as of 2021, 9% of U.S. students in K-12 grades were enrolled in private schools. It says that the percentage of students enrolled in private schools has stayed at 9% for several years.

A limited but recent snapshot of data comes from the survey created to track changes since the COVID-19 pandemic called the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey; when looking at August to September 2024, 7.48% of school age children grades K-12 were enrolled in private schools.

But according to another analysis, the trend seems to show that private school enrollment is growing. It notes that official U.S. Census data says as of 2022, 11.8% of U.S. students were in private schools. In fact, according to this source, the share of students enrolled in private schools has been growing (slowly but steadily) in the 12 years preceding it, increasing from 10.9% in 2010 to 11.8% in 2022. The growth during this period may be attributed to the increase in the number of school-age kids (although that number is predicted to drop), while the sharper growth in recent years may be attributed to the pandemic. The expansion of choice legislation may also play a role in the future.

Utah specifics

When looking at Utah specifically, according to data from NCES, in 2021 about 2% of Utah students were enrolled in private schools. Among all states this means Utah has one of the smallest shares of students in private school this year. Only Wyoming had as low a percentage of students enrolled in private schools (2%), while on the upper end, the District of Columbia had 20% of students and Wisconsin had 15% of students enrolled in private school. Almost all the New England states had 10% or more students enrolled in private schools.

Recent EdChoice data estimates a similar percentage, where 1.7% of Utah students are in private choice program and 0.5% in some other private school option.

Another private source called Private School Review estimates that 3% of Utah students are enrolled in private schools for the 2024-25 school year. Its data estimates that there are 193 private schools in the state serving 22,363 students.

Limited awareness of private choice programs is a barrier

Utah’s new universal choice program called the Utah Fits All Scholarship may impact private school enrollment in the future. However, as it stands, the program is very limited due to funds. Furthermore, recipients don’t necessarily choose to spend their scholarship on private school tuition. An added complication is awareness.  Private school attendance is far from solely dependent on private choice legislation. As mentioned in earlier articles, 75% of likely voters in Utah alone are not aware of the newly passed universal scholarship, and among parents – who one might presume would be in the know – 64% are unaware.

According to an EdChoice national survey, awareness may be a barrier to families using such program. About half of respondents do not know if their state has an education savings account. About the same are unaware of a voucher program.

The growth of private school enrollment may also be impacted by the quality and availability of other choices. As public schools seek to orient themselves toward parents, with increased access to curriculum, or as open enrollment policies seek to empower parents with more easy-to-use information about their public choices, public schools could still be the most used option of all choices.

As time goes on, however, it will be interesting to watch how big a share of private school attendance is made possible by education choice programs, especially by the growth of existing programs across the nation and in Utah.