Researchers have found that when an individual follows a series of steps called “the success sequence,” the chances of staying out of poverty are astonishingly high. Basically, if someone in their younger years graduates from high school, gets a full-time job, and marries – before having kids – then they have a 97% chance of not being in poverty in their mid-30s. 

Knowing this data is important for students, families and policymakers. This is particularly relevant when looking at state and national trends that might impact a young person’s ability to follow these steps, like today’s chronic absenteeism in schools. 

Chronic absenteeism in schools has been a significant issue since the pandemic, nationally as well as in Utah. Recent data from the Utah State Board of Education shows that 27% of Utah students are chronically absent, which means they are absent at least 10% of school days. If you look only at those at risk of being absent (those nearing that threshold), more than 50% are either chronically absent or at risk of it. Importantly, research shows that chronic absenteeism is correlated with increases in failing to meet certain learning milestones and dropping out of school entirely. 

This last metric reflects a particularly harrowing problem. If students can’t get credentialed from high school (or hopefully at least its equivalent), life becomes increasingly difficult and so does the prospect of avoiding poverty. 

What’s at the root of chronic absenteeism? How should we view this current reality? What do we do about it?  

The pandemic created a new normal of not going to school 

Chronic absenteeism is not a new phenomenon vexing educators. Students missing a lot of school for excused or unexcused reasons (different from truancy, which is just unexcused) has been a problem for student achievement for a while. Prior to the pandemic, about 8 million students were considered chronically absent from school. However, the pandemic obviously changed a lot in education and exacerbated chronic absenteeism across the country. Perhaps we can assume the short-lived “new normal” of not going to school had an impact, and so did having access to work online. The pandemic also took a toll on mental health and caused ripples in personal and family dynamics. 

Statewide policies offer ways around attendance requirements 

Furthermore, state public policy on the heels of the pandemic played a part. For example, in the 2021 legislative session lawmakers passed bills in response to the realities of not attending school during this time. HB 81 – Mental Health Days for Students made behavioral or mental health a valid excuse for a school absence. HB 116 – Student Attendance Amendments prohibits requiring a doctor’s note when excusing an absence for mental or physical illness. And SB 219 – Truancy Enforcement Moratorium created a truancy moratorium until 2022. These policies, among others, sent a message to students and families about schooling that has likely had some downstream effects regarding absenteeism.  

New modes of education may be more attractive than traditional school 

It’s worth considering other simultaneous trends in education. As Sutherland has noted before, more families are choosing alternative forms of education than ever, with significant increases in home schooling, charter schools and online schools. Perhaps absenteeism is a parallel trend that suggests families and students no longer view school the same way as they once did. As preference for the public-school institution has eroded (along with trust in public schools, in some segments of society), strict attendance at school may simply no longer be perceived as the necessary default.  

What can the state do? 

HB 400 – School Absenteeism Amendments was a state effort during this year’s legislative session. It seeks to create supportive, non-punitive methods to keep students in school, including increased coordination between entities to help address the complex needs of students.  

Still, it’s not entirely clear what absent students are doing when not in school. While it’s possible some students may still be learning somehow, if it’s not an alternative that gets tracked by the state, it’s hard to identify. More likely, students have unexcused absences for other ongoing personal or family reasons. Certainly, without solid and credible knowledge of why students are taking unexcused absences, chronic absenteeism is a cause for concern and will be difficult to solve.  

The state may also want to survey what, if any, alternate modes of learning students are accessing elsewhere to understand how the landscape of education is changing.  

And likewise, if students or families no longer see a future in the traditional school where they would normally be enrolled, state staff and education entrepreneurs should ensure access to education that meets personal, cultural or family needs. Hopefully this will allow students to progress toward a credential that signifies their completion of high school coursework. 

Whatever the option, we ought to prioritize students graduating from high school or the equivalent to ensure that they move along the success sequence and increase their odds of a prosperous and thriving career and family life.