Data still support skepticism of climate change models

For years, Sutherland Institute has encouraged policymakers to maintain a healthy skepticism – a scientific skepticism, even – of theoretical climate projections based on man-made climate models. This skepticism is warranted based on the fact that actual, observed data (especially temperature data) run contrary to predictions of the theoretical models.

The theory vs. reality contradiction, it seems, continues to favor reality over theory.

As climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer recently noted in this blog post (see chart), actual observed temperatures (based on running 5-year averages to adjust for normal, annual temperature fluctuations) do not sync with the projected rise in temperatures from 73 “credible” climate models. Theoretically, these models would show “evidence” that the earth is heading for a climate catastrophe caused by man-made global warming, without dramatic changes in public policy and societal behavior.image002 A few days previous to this post, Dr. Spencer had blogged about the following chart produced by climate scientist Dr. John Christy, which compared long-term linear trends (as opposed to short-term averages) of actual observed temperatures versus trends predicted by the same climate models. As shown, the actual trend falls well below the lower bound of the climate trends predicted by the climate models. If the observed long-term trend is compared to only the U.S.-produced climate model trends, the disparity grows even worse. image004The implication is boldly stated by Dr. Spencer: “[I]n what universe do the above results not represent an epic failure for the models?”

The dire predictions put forward in the name of climate science, it seems, still deserve a healthy dose of (scientific) skepticism from both policymakers and the public.

Related posts:

This entry was posted in Environment and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to Data still support skepticism of climate change models

  1. Richard Warnick says:

    In fact, the observed climate data have exceeded the consensus predictions by the IPCC. Most climate scientists will tell you that our planet is past several of the tipping points, which means that it’s too late for pollution controls to have much effect. Mission accomplished, climate denialists!

    • Derek H Monson says:

      Richard,

      So even those who think the IPCC has it right believe that anti-”global warming” policies are pointless? Good to know…and thanks for helping us make our case.

      Derek Monson
      Sutherland Institute

  2. Richard Warnick says:

    Spencer is a meteorologist, not a climate scientist. Debunk of Spencer’s claims here:

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/misdiagnosis-of-surface-temperature-feedback/

    • Derek H Monson says:

      Richard,

      As Princeton’s online “lexical database for English” defines it, “climatology” is the “meteorology of climates and their phenomena.” In other words, his PhD in meteorology is one of the things that uniquely qualifies him as a climatologist.

      Further, much of his actual work as a scientist has been on climate. For example, he was a “senior scientist for climate studies” at NASA. And he has published peer-reviewed articles in climate journals regarding climate models.

      So whether from an academic or practical perspective, it is accurate to say that Dr. Spencer is a climatologist, your objections notwithstanding.

      Derek Monson
      Sutherland Institute

  3. Pingback: Models of climate-change costs are ‘completely made up,’ MIT economist says | Sutherland Daily

  4. Pingback: Sutherland Institute » Models of climate-change costs are ‘completely made up,’ MIT economist says

  5. Pingback: Surprise! CO2 is projected to generate $9.8 trillion in benefits | Sutherland Daily

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>